We’re hearing that question rather frequently from Republican candidates and operatives, and as a political and history junkie, I know where that question is coming from, and more importantly, what Republicans are hoping for when they ask that question.
The Presidential Election of 1980
In 1980 incumbent Democratic president Jimmy Carter was facing Republican Ronald Reagan. Carter was dealing with a 12.8% inflation rate, and a prime interest rate of 17.75%. By the end of December the prime interest rate would soar to 21.5%, the highest level ever recorded. High interest rates were the Federal Reserve’s method of wringing inflation out of the economic system, but the pain of those high rates ripped through the economy. Businesses couldn’t afford to borrow at those rates, and their inability to borrow translated to an inability to expand, which translated into layoffs. High interest rates also made it very difficult to purchase a home, or to refinance an existing home loan. This high interest period was when the ARM (Adjustable Rate Mortgage) was created.
The unemployment rate in October of 1980 stood at 7.5%, which was high for a country with a population of 226.5 million people. The average price for a gallon of gas was $1.21. The average price for a gallon of gas crossed the $1 threshold in the summer of 1980, and for the first time Americans faced this reality: a gallon of gas would never be below $1 again.
In foreign affairs President Carter was dealing with two issues: the ongoing hostage crisis in Iran, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. In April Carter had approved a covert ops rescue plan to spirit the hostages away from their Iranian captors, but that plan ended in disaster when two of the helicopters detailed for the rescue collided in the Iranian desert, killing eight U.S. servicemen. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was launched in December of 1979, just months after Carter signed an arms reduction treaty with Soviet leader Leonid Brezhenev, making Carter appear weak and feckless.
On 28 October, one week before Election Day, Carter and Reagan faced each other for their sole debate, as Carter had refused to participate in any debate that included third party candidate John Anderson. The debate lasted for 90 minutes, and an estimated 80.6 million Americans watched, making it the most watched presidential debate until Trump and Hillary Clinton squared off in 2016.
I was a sophomore in college that night. I was, and still am, a politics and history nerd. Throughout my high school and college courses in history and government, I had been taught about how the 1960 presidential debate between Senator John Kennedy (D-Massachusetts) and Vice President Richard Nixon (R-California) helped swing that election to Senator Kennedy. I was looking for the same thing in that one debate between Carter and Reagan. I came from a family of Democrats, and my Dad was a union member working for the Washington Gas company. This would be my first presidential election, and I was leaning towards Reagan, but I wasn’t convinced, until he closed with these words:
“Are you better off now than you were four years ago? Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four years ago? Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was four years ago? Is America as respected throughout the world as it was? Do you feel that our security is as safe, that we’re as strong as we were four years ago? And if you answer all of those questions ‘yes’, why then, I think your choice is very obvious as to whom you will vote for. If you don’t agree, if you don’t think that this course that we’ve been on for the last four years is what you would like to see us follow for the next four, then I could suggest another choice that you have.”
Prior to the debate Reagan was trailing Carter by eight points among registered voters and three points among likely voters. After the debate Regan moved into a three point lead among likely voters. By the final weekend of the campaign Reagan’s lead among likely voters jumped to ten points, which turned out to be his margin of victory over Carter on election day. I, and other voters, asked if we were better off than we were four years ago, and the answer was an emphatic no.
In addition to defeating Carter, Reagan proved to the first Republican candidate since Dwight Eisenhower to have coattails, allowing the Republicans to gain control of the Senate for the first time since the 1952 general election.
2024 Ain’t 1980
On 17 March 2024 Trump posted on Truth Social: “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” Republican candidates and operatives had seized this question, hoping to run a repeat of the 1980 election. As noted above, President Carter was dealing with high inflation, high interest rates, and high unemployment rates. These pocketbook/wallet issues are mostly beyond the control of presidents, but voters blame the man in the White House when the economy isn’t going well. Let’s look at the pocketbook/wallet issues from March 2020 and March 2024
March 2020 | March 2024 |
Rate of Inflation-1.5% | Rate of Inflation-3.8% |
Unemployment-4.4% | Unemployment-3.9% |
Prime Interest rate-3.25% | Prime Interest Rate-5.25% |
Average price for a gallon of gas-$2.42 | Average price for a gallon of gas-$3.40 |
As we can see in the above table, the only positive economic number for March of 2024 is the unemployment number, which is at 3.9%. That’s quite a reduction from the 4.4% rate in March of 2020, but in February of 2020 the unemployment rate was 3.5%. What accounted for the sharp spike in the space of a month in 2020?
We all know the answer to that question. The Covid pandemic erupted in March of 2020. On 16 March the Dow plunged nearly 3,000 points, wiping out almost 13 percent of its value. It was in March that the Federal Reserve, sensing the impending financial tsunami that was about to engulf the nation and the world, slashed its benchmark rate from 3.25% to 0.5%. Even that drastic step wasn’t enough to calm the economy. By April the unemployment rate had soared to 14%, with 23 million Americans out of work. Businesses shuttered across the nation as states mandated closures. Yes, consumer goods were cheaper in March of 2020, and it was less expensive to borrow money for a home or business loan, but those low costs were the result of a pandemic that would kill over 1 million Americans, leave millions others to suffer with long Covid, and as the recovery sparked demand, send prices upward.
“Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” If the answer to that question is based strictly on the cost of goods and services, then the answer is yes. But, if the answer to that question takes into account the pandemic, and more importantly, President Trump’s response to the pandemic, then the answer is an unqualified no. Five days after the Dow plunged by nearly 3,000 points, and the Fed slashed its benchmark rate, the number of U.S. Covid cases topped 20,000. 300 Americans were dead, with thousands more in hospitals struggling to breathe, as healthcare workers struggled with mask and ventilator shortages.
The pandemic wasn’t Trump’s fault, just as the stagflation of the late 1970s wasn’t Carter’s fault, but each man can be faulted for how they reacted to the events history handed them. In Carter’s case he made combatting inflation a primary goal of his presidency, and he when he appointed Paul Volcker as chairman of the Federal Reserve, Volcker bluntly told him that the only way to calm inflation was to make it painful to borrow money. Presidents can’t tell a Fed chairman when or how much to raise interest rates, but when Carter appointed Volcker in the summer of 1979, he should have thought about how the average American would feel the pain of Volcker’s steep interest rate hikes, especially as an election year was approaching.
Trump viewed the pandemic as an impediment to his re-election campaign, and he treated the greatest health crisis in a century as if he were dealing with a case of jock itch. On 21 March 2020, as U.S. cases reached 14,000, and the state of California issued a stay at home order for its 40 million residents, an NBC reporter asked Trump for his message “to Americans who are watching you right now and who are scared.” Trump’s response:
“I say you’re a terrible reporter, that’s what I say. I think it’s a very nasty question.”
Trump’s bluster and macho strutting were an annoyance throughout his presidency, but when the pandemic erupted this behavior veered from alarming to terrifying. This behavior also nearly cost Trump his life. His refusal to wear a mask at public gatherings led to him contracting Covid, resulting in him having to be airlifted to Walter Reed, where he came close to death.
2020 was one of the worst years in American history, and Trump did nothing to calm the fears of Americans as they tried to cope with the pandemic. Republican operatives hoping to catch the 1980 lightning better take a long hard look at the news accounts of 2020 before making that question a foundation of their 2024 election hopes. This ain’t 1980, and Trump sure as Hell isn’t Ronald Reagan.
